The Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service have released a new report forecasting that PlayStation 3 hardware will eventually outsell Xbox 360 and Wii, expecting Sony's system to continue selling much longer than its rival home consoles.
The report, "Taming the Waves: Games Console Life Cycles and Platform Competition," admits that Wii's hardware sales have so far eclipsed those of the PS3 and Xbox 360 but predicts that Sony's console will still be a commercial platform five years after the Wii is replaced. It expects that PS3's global lifetime sales will reach 127 million, compared to its prediction of 103 million Wii units.
Sony Computer Entertainment's chairman and CEO Kaz Hirai has previously described the PS3 as a ten-year console, one that it believes consumers will continue to purchase and use long after they replace their Xbox 360 and Wii systems with their successors.
"Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences," says SACHD principal analyst and the report's author David Mercer. "But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."
SACHD also anticipates that the global installed base of home consoles will reach over 220 million by the end of the year, but its models indicate that the ownership of current systems will peak in 2011. At that point, the firm believes vendors will "need to introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth."
"Console industry cycles have given the industry major planning challenges for many years," says Mercer. "There are signs that this volatility may be moderating as platforms add home entertainment and social networking services beyond pure gaming."