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If you enjoy reading this site, you might also want to check out these Think Services sites:
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 Finger Gaming (news, reviews, and analysis on iPhone and iPod Touch games.)
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 Worlds In Motion (discussing the business of online worlds.)
 Game Set Watch (the Group's alt.game weblog.) |
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The Divnich Tapes: Xbox 360 GTA IV To Sell Twice The PS3 Version?
by Jesse Divnich
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April 23, 2008
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[Throughout this week, ex-simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich is presenting exclusive Gamasutra analysis of March's hardware and software trends, using data from The simExchange, NPD, IGN GamerMetrics and GameTrailers.
Our third installment uses GamerMetrics data to compare selling points and decide which system will like claim victory with Grand Theft Auto IV's multi-platform release. Previously in this series: the end of FPS sales cannibalization and April predictions for Mario Kart Wii and GTA IV.]
I will preface the following by stating that the data within this article is analyzed based on a worldwide perspective, as GamerMetrics boasts a large European user base.
Sony and Microsoft have long argued that their system offers the best overall Grand Thef Auto IV experience. Microsoft points to their exclusive downloadable content deal with Take-Two and their strong multiplayer community.
On the other hand, Sony is banking off its “superior” graphics and large PlayStation 2 installed base (keeping in mind that GTA’s first claim to mass-market fame was on the PS2).
To shed some light on this dispute, we will look closely at GamerMetrics data to help analyze which system will likely claim victory.
Grand Theft Auto IV has numerous key selling points including: downloadable content, mass-marketing, multiplayer, graphics, sandbox game play, strong install base, and a slew of other features that define what a “mass-market” game should have.
Unfortunately, listing every game that has similar key selling points would be far too massive and inexact for this type of analysis. Instead, we can extract data from three recently released multi-platform titles that each has their own key selling feature that they share with GTA IV.
Those features are: strong multiplayer support, a superior marketing campaign, and a loyal PS2 install base.
Based off the GamerMetrics data for Rainbow Six Vegas 2, we can assume that a multi-platform game with strong multiplayer support tends to favor the Xbox 360. Data on Army of Two shows that a game that targets the mainstream audience and has a superior marketing campaign tend to fall in-line with current ratio trends.
Last and most obviously, the data on Devil May Cry 4 indicates that IP with a strong PlayStation 2 fan base tends to favor the PlayStation 3. (I will be revisiting these individual subjects in a few months as our proprietary research tools at EEDAR can, trendwise, better show the different correlations between features and sales).
Conclusion: Ratio Estimates
If there is a correlation between the GamerMetrics data and the U.S. NPD data (and there somewhat is), I estimate that we are going to see a GTA IV sales ratio of anywhere between 2.2 to 2.7 in favor of the Xbox 360 - which is also in the same ballpark of the current Xbox 360 to PS3 lifetime-to-date hardware sales ratio of 2.4.
Given the above data and current trends, the conflict between those two consoles is surprisingly even. And the hardware battle between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will continue long after the release of GTA IV, of course.
Consequently, this will likely lead both Sony and Microsoft back to the drawing board to rethink their current first party release schedule, hardware pricing, and promotion strategy.
For reference, The simExchange is expecting a 1.65 to 1 Xbox 360 to PS3 sales ratio for Grand Theft Auto IV, which, if true, would indicate a PS3 'victory', at least in terms of percentage of total installed base purchasing the game.
[NOTE: "This month's Divnich Tapes were prepared during my ending term as the Analyst at the SimExchange. Next month, I look forward to a new format and expanded analytics with the utilization of the extensive data available to me as the new Director of Analytical Services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR). The following is the views and opinions of one person and not of EEDAR, The simExchange, GamerMetrics, or Gametrailers."-- Jesse Divnich.]
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The game didn't even come out yet.
From the first sentence: "I will preface the following by stating that the data within this article is analyzed based on a worldwide perspective, as GamerMetrics boasts a large European user base."
There doesnt need to be so many analyst making these predictions... LAME again who cares which system. They just need something to write about...
Whats more pressing is that the adverts that where put up in Chicago are coming down and Fox news is giving them free advertisment by covering the story. HAHAHAH
So that maybe a mil T2 spent for Chi-town adverts is coming down Fox just made that nation wide for ya so again kudos to T2 another marketing+ for you guys...
And the violence that is happening there in Chi town has nothing to do with the game... Ive seen adverts on tv and in the public for viagra and no one is taking that down who wants to be reminded that old people are getting their freak on NO THANKS! but those arnt coming down. and all the drug i mean prescribed medicines that are all over the streets with billboards and bus stops those things are not coming down they... people have you heard of the side effects most of these things have now days... "if u have a urinating problem take these pills but the side effects are diarrhea, or blood clots..." Umm no thanks ill just go pee...
Those adverts for gta should have stayed up PERIOD!
GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA GTA 4 LIFE!
My estimate is just based off the consumer data that is available and does not factor in any last minute promotions either side might introduce. Example 1. Best Buy: Get a $50 giftcard for purchasing GTA IV and the Xbox 360 hardware.
To Tom: Yea, it has long been a debated about Xbox 360's upscale 1080p. In 2007, 59% of Xbox 360 games supported 1080p; PS3 21%. I was going to do a full feature on this, but I figured there was too much argument that the 360's 1080p isn't "true". Also, I agree with you that any hardcore gamer who owns both system, typically chooses the 360 version because of 1. Xbox Live and 2. Achievement points.
To Super: Yea, the game is not out yet, but using past data from similar titles, it offers a glimpse as what is to come. Of course, by no means is this style of analysis "right", it just opens the door for further discussion.
With that being said, you couldn't give me GTAIV on 360. I'm getting it for PS3 for sure. Seeing one RRoD was enough. I never want to have to sit in front of a console again with the fear of RRoD waiting in the shadows. I don't care what the exclusive content is on 360. Fat lotta good it does you if your console doesn't work.
But RRod does suck if you have had it but my l33t has been serving me well and Live is nice and only gets better.
and when u put in everything u get built in ur PS3 its cheaper than a 360. Bla bla 360 doesn't forc things on people. bla bla no its just a better way to make more money, offer stuff extra and make more for it. PS3 gives u almost everything of hand and says heres a system that will last you a lot longer with everything built in and less likely to break on you cause it was made like that and u don't have all this crap sitting around ur system or plugged in the back. its sleek and sexy.
lastly all that downloadable content for this game that 360 is talking about is just another way for them to make more f'ing money. microsoft is a blood sucker. PS3 awesome. for some and 360 is better for others caue of online play.
MGS4 FTW!!!!! thats what i want