GOF 2008: DFC Claims PS3 Unlikely to Break Even, PC Not Dying
DFC Intelligence has been involved in market research of the video games industry since 1995, and president & senior technology analyst Wanda Meloni took the stage to discuss the key trends that will shape the market in the near future.
After briefly introducing the basic standings of each of the major console manufacturers, Meloni argued that "Sony has the most to lose with this current generation."
Based on DFC's most current research, she says, Sony's production losses per individual PS3 mean that the console can't be expected to "break even" across its lifetime.
In addition, while Sony owned 67 percent of the market at the height of the PS2 era, DFS intelligence expects that it will only maintain between 40 to 50 percent of the market by the end of the current generation.
A device more regularly considered "doomed" is the PC, and on that Meloni had a far sunnier prognosis. While "other research companies" may claim the PC is dying, that's because they "rely on retail numbers."
"The PC has moved much faster to online and digital distribution methods that they aren’t tracking," she said, arguing that the PC market actually continues to grow at pace with the increase in the distribution of PC hardware.
"For example, by 2010 we expect the PC userbase in Asia will begin to outpace that in North America or Europe," she said, supporting her claim by noting that the PC-based online game market is worth $6.5 billion as of 2008.
"The new business models dominate," she emphasized, with MMOGs making up $3.5 billion in 2008 and casual games making over $1.5 billion, and models such as advergaming and free-to-play offering great potential for growth on the system.
As a result, she concluded that the distribution of proficient development is becoming more spread across the globe, with growth of industry in Korea, Singapore and China at 30 percent annually, while India is racing forward with 78 percent growth.