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Analyst: High-Rated Chinatown Wars Could Sell 2 Million
by Leigh Alexander
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March 17, 2009
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Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars on DS could sell 2 million units in its first year, says Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, as he waxes effusive on Take-Two's talent stable.
Creutz's estimation is based in part on Chinatown Wars' high Metacritic rating, currently at 95 based on eight reviews. "If the title's subsequent reviews are consistent with the initial critical response, 'Chinatown Wars' would be the highest rated title on the DS to date," he says.
The userbase of Nintendo's handheld stands at 27 million in the United States, and while Creutz notes that userbase "skews younger," there's a core following for the handheld as well.
"The strong critical rating will likely increase the game's chances of becoming a commercial hit," says Creutz.
Although analysts like Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter have expressed skepticism on the year ahead for Take-Two, Creutz believes the publisher's current estimates for its 2009 performance will prove conservative.
"The highly-rated release supports our belief that Take-Two has, pound-for-pound, the highest-quality development talent in the industry," Creutz says.
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"I'll be shocked if GTA: Chinatown Wars sells more than 500,000 in the U.S."
http://www.edge-online.com/features/how-long-are-gtas-legs
Let's see who's right.