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Survey:  Halo 3: ODST  Leads 50 Most Anticipated Games List
Survey: Halo 3: ODST Leads 50 Most Anticipated Games List
June 23, 2009 | By Kris Graft

June 23, 2009 | By Kris Graft
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More: Console/PC



According to the latest tracking study provided to Gamasutra by OTX's GamePlan Insights, Xbox 360-exclusive Halo 3: ODST easily leads all other games in post-E3 purchase intent, followed by New Super Mario Bros. Wii and God of War 3.

The post-E3 purchase intent for Halo 3: ODST, due this September, stood at 828, or "more than eight times greater than the average game included in the data set," according to Nick Williams, director of Gaming Insights for research firm OTX.

Halo 3: ODST's purchase intent following E3 jumped up from 629 pre-E3, according to a survey released just prior to the L.A.-based industry event, which took place in June. The average purchase index score is 100. "Halo 3: ODST continues to dominate the field, which is indicative of the overall health and widespread appeal of the Halo brand," Williams added in a statement.

This latest title in the Halo franchise is under development by series creator Bungie. The game is somewhat of a departure for the franchise, as players take on the role of an "Orbital Drop Shock Trooper" instead of Halo hero Master Chief.

Trailing by nearly 300 purchase intent index points in the second slot is Nintendo's New Super Mario Bros. Wii, which Nintendo unveiled during its E3 briefing. The game is due in November. Rounding out a top three that included exclusive titles for all of the big three consoles was Sony's God of War 3 for PlayStation 3, which earned 530 on the purchase intent index.

GamePlan also tracks preorder intent, the proportion of intended buyers of a game who are committed enough to put down money for the game ahead of its release. By that metric, Infinity Ward's Modern Warfare 2 leads the pack, followed by Blizzard's StarCraft II. Those rankings may reflect the particularly dedicated communities behind the games, which are likely to have long shelf lives thanks to multiplayer; in the case of StarCraft II, the title's long-awaited status may also influence its ranking.

Said Williams of Halo 3: ODST, God of War III, and New Super Mario Bros., "These three first party titles showcase the individual strengths of each of the major consoles and also illustrate the importance of exclusive content in the battle for consumer mindshare."

Other notable games that made the top 10 on the purchase intent index rankings were Square Enix's Final Fantasy XIII, 2K Marin's BioShock 2, Infinity Ward's Modern Warfare 2, Valve's Left 4 Dead 2, Nintendo's Wii Sports Resort, and EA Tiburon's Madden NFL 10.

There are also some high-profile games that are conspicuously missing from the top 50 rankings, according to Williams, including Forza Motorsport 3 (53), Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (61), Metroid: Other M (70), MAG (86), Heavy Rain (91), and Alan Wake (115).

The full list, courtesy of OTX/GamePlan, provides some interesting comparisons to a similar post-E3 survey by Nielsen, but also includes awareness and pre-order indexes as follows:

GamePlan_PostE3_Top50.gif

OTX's GamePlan tracking survey involves polling 1,000 U.S. gamers each week. The firm plans to release updated rankings in July.


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Comments


Chris Remo
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Part of it is that there are just fewer high-profile original games coming out this year. I remember the original Assassin's Creed having enormous levels of hype, for example; same with Gears of War. BioShock gained tons of traction in the few months leading up to its release as well.



But in general I would say the movie masses are far more accepting of non-sequels. A huge percentage of successful films released are not part of existing series; I don't know what the proportion is in games, but it's a whole lot more sequel-centric than Hollywood.



Not anticipating unprecedented success from outliers isn't really significant in my opinion; you could never reliably predict that a game is going to become the best-selling PC game of all time, for example. But just generally having an audience that is receptive to non-sequels is something that I think is doable--the games industry just isn't very good at fostering it compared to some other forms.

Jay Johnson
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I am pretty surprised that Modern Warfare II is so far down on the list. I would have thought, at a minimum, it would have only been behind Halo: ODST.

Paul Lazenby
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A lot of sequels?

You guys ever read a BO Chart?

Yeah, and i too am a little surprised that Modern Warfare is so far down the list. Does this correlate to the fact that it has high presale?

Simon Carless
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We'll be discussing Modern Warfare 2 in a separate news story tomorrow morning, Rob/Jay, we have some Gameplan Insights comments on that. (Clue: it's to do with the game's 'Call Of Duty' pre-title, or lack there-of.)

Francois Levesque
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Exclusive games are high because they list separate SKUs as different games. For example,if you add AC2's PS3 and 360 SKUs then you get 722 on the purchase intent index - which is a lot more than Mario and God of War. Same with Final Fantasy XIII and Modern Warfare 2 etc.

Peter Dwyer
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Not sure how this is a top 50 when most of the titles are simply repeated for different platforms. Looking at the list it is simply a list of all the games that were shown at E3 and therefore just a list of game names that people currently remember. The same list in two weeks time may look completely different as some games are forgotten and others are advertised more strongly.



In the end thought, it's already been shown that such lists do not dictate or even predict the resulting sales of the titles mentioned.

Andrew Heywood
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> Certainly the market could never anticipate an utterly new product



That's not really true - if LucasFilm started screening trailers for StarWars 6 months before its release, you'd expect people to be eagerly anticipating it (or not I suppose...). I mean - where's Alan Wake?



As usual, this data seems odd to most folk around here, because it's obviously not representative of the kind of people who actually watched the E3 presentations, and who follow games closely.


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