On the Wii's progress so far:
Nintendo is working with multiple suppliers to boost production for the holiday
season, but the expected demand increase during the next few months means
consumers are going to have to be savvy with their shopping tactics. Don't
expect to be able to walk into a Best Buy on Black Friday and see stacks of
Wiis lying around. From a profitability standpoint, Nintendo has passed with
flying colors, and is the only console manufacturer actually making money on its
console -- $50 per unit in the U.S..
Up until now, software selection has been
adequate, but we continue to be concerned with the lack of must-have third-party
titles targeting the mass-market audience. The average Wii owner in the U.S. has
only purchased 2.8 titles, which is significantly lower than the Xbox 360 owner
(5.5 titles) and more surprisingly, the PlayStation 3 owner (3.0). Nintendo
continues to hold the key to driving software sales for the Wii. The five best
selling Nintendo titles to date are all home-grown franchises, as are the three
most anticipated upcoming Wii titles: Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash
Bros. Brawl, and Mario Kart.
On the Xbox 360's progress so far:
First-person shooters, most notably Halo, have been the cornerstone of
the Xbox 360's success. So it should come as no surprise that Microsoft has
struggled in the casual gaming arena. That said, I think the industry should be
careful about the use of the phrase "casual gamer." The casual gamer that
Nintendo is going after -- soccer moms, older gamers -- is not the same as the
casual gamer that helped propel the PS2 to break 100 million units. Instead of
taking Nintendo's approach, Microsoft is looking to marginalize the areas where
Sony was so successful with the PS2, in the hopes that it can make PlayStation
loyalists cross the fence to the Xbox.
To this end, Microsoft has done a great
job of securing key third-party partnerships as well as offering quality
first-party content. It has also trumped Sony and Nintendo in the online space,
which could prove to be a valuable asset heading into 2008. Internationally,
Microsoft has had a tough time getting through to the Japanese consumer, and I
expect it will look to Europe as the region with the largest potential
growth.
Microsoft's FPS powerhouse Halo 3
On the PS3's progress so far: It
has been a tough year for PlayStation fans. Gamers are still waiting for the
killer app for the PlayStation 3, and it doesn't look like that will come until
2008. Sony will be looking to put 2007 behind them and focus on potential
console defining titles like Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots,
Killzone 2, and Gran Turismo 5, as well as fine-tuning the
PlayStation Home service.
Moving forward, the battle between
Blu-ray and HD-DVD will continue to have a greater impact on console sell-through
rates. Top retailer Target [is] moving forward with plans to expand their
Blu-ray disc shelf space in time for the Holiday 2007 buying
season.
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