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Jeremy Liew seconds those numbers, even
though he isn't a developer. Liew is managing director of Menlo Park, CA-based
Lightspeed Venture Partners, a major VC firm which has recently focused on funding free-to-play MMOs, mostly
multiplayer, web-based games like Friends
for Sale by Serious Business, which is on Facebook.
In a recent blog post, Liew reports that, according to his
research, ARPU at several popular sites averages $1.25 per month, specifically
$1.62 at Club Penguin, $1.30 at Habbo, and $0.84 at RuneScape.
"Having spoken to many other MMOs
and virtual worlds on a private basis," he writes, "this estimate
seems to be a good gauge for what a well-performing MMO can aspire to from a
free-to-play business model."
In terms of ARPPU, he says, the range is from $10 to $50 per
paying user per month, which typically comes from 5-10% of the total number of
users in any given month. Sports and gambling games tend to be a bit higher,
social games a bit lower.
Liew believes that free-to-play MMOs
present a huge opportunity for smaller companies, which is why his firm invests
in them, of course. He sees the business model as a "disruption"
that, he says, larger companies have a difficult time surviving.
"The business policies that made big
companies so successful can sometimes blind them to the things they now need to
do to become successful on the other side of the disruption. It's hard for them
to change," he observes. "Small companies transition much more
easily."
Another advantage to building
free-to-play MMOs compared with subscription-based games is, simply put, that
peoples' expectations of their quality is dramatically different, says Liew.
And with the bar set lower, development time and expense are easier on the
budget.
"If you're putting out a World of Warcraft and are charging $60
for it, people are expecting a pretty good game for their money," he
explains.
"But if it's free, you can practically throw anything up -- even
if it's buggy, even if it's not feature-complete, even if it crashes sometimes
-- and see how people react to it. If they like it, great. If they don't, you
can either fix it and watch what your customers do -- or abandon it altogether.
That's the great thing about the Web and about free-to-play."
His best advice to developers is to jump
into the sector only if you can get your mindset around a lower-level of quality
when launching your beta... and then iterating quickly.
"If you are a master craftsman who
likes to spend six years making everything just so before releasing it to the
public, then you're probably better off sticking with the older business
models," Liew says. "Because you're going to have a tough time
reconciling much, much lower revenue with high cost.
"But," he adds, "if you
can wrap your head around the implication of less money in and less money out ...
and you can develop the games with relatively small, multiple teams that are
constantly turning them out like an assembly line ... you're going to find that
free-to-play MMOs are an exciting and worthwhile place to be."
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I'll break the figures down into Lifetime (8 months) and 7 day (last week). Daniel didn't mention this, but I would add that the numbers seem to get better each month as long-time players continue to make purchases and new features are added that retain/convert newer players.
Lifetime:
ARPU: $2.03
ARPPU: $59.27
7-Day:
ARPU: $3.51
ARPPU: $46.66
I'd also like to add that "Sales" events are huge. As in 10x revenue generation. This is why the 7-day ARPPU numbers (no recent sale) are lower than the lifetime ARPPU numbers this week.
Additionally, ads and "sponsored offers" (think TrialPay, Offerpal, PayBuyPartner, Gambit, Super Rewards, etc.) Represent an additional 10% on top of the purchases. Not a huge share, but an extra 10% is nice.
One final interesting tidbit that I've seen is pricepoints. Our microtrans game has pricepoints from $0.99 to $349.99 and about 80% of the revenue comes from purchases at the $19.99 pricepoint. So even though games are pitched as "free-to-play w/microtrans", the transactions can actually be major ;)
Information sharing like this really helps the industry, especially for smaller Independent companies like mine (Tandem Games).
Although as you mentioned, it is really hard to draw consequences from different games - let alone different genres - it is still a huge help for us little people. So, thank you guys once again.
Kongregate:
3% of mulitplayer gamers tend to pay, only have a few games out so far… 2% single player games tend to pay. Kongregate offers $5, $10, $20 per… $5 is the most common chunk. $3 per transaction is the most common unit of purchase amount.
Puzzel Pirates:
22% of Puzzel Pirates pay to play of active (regular) players. $20 average per active player $4.95 minimum for getting starte. 60% / 40% credit / PayPal
Dino Wars:
9% of Dino Wars active (regular) players pay something to play…
Zynga Notes (Social Networking games):
200 million people on facebook, Kongregate has 5 million
Mafia Wars over 1,000,000 a day
Some games making $10k – $30k a day on facebook
Pet Society 2.8 million daily active users
MindJolt has 300,000 active users daily on facebook
Zynga income is in three parts 33/33/33 ad revenue, Microtransactions and form filling out (?)
Kudos by the way for people who post this kind of stuff.
A little disheartening to say, "we can throw any crap we want up there and see if the idiots'll pay for it." However I love F2P and am far more likely to give an F2P game my money than buy a subscription. The a la carte approach makes me feel more empowered but more importantly, if I stop paying money I can still play. In WoW, if you stop paying your subscription there's nothing you get to keep using. You just can't play anymore until you start paying again.
There are many types of F2P games: session-based games, standalone social worlds, mmorpg games with item malls, mmorpg games with single virtual currencies. All of them have different values, be it ARPU, ARPPU, active to regs, price of reg, retention, etc.
Then you start taking into account other things, well...
There's number of online players per game. Is it per server or per shard? Or total? Peak or average? Does your peak and average includes actives and fresh new regs as well?
Active players - is it 2 weeks old number or 1 month old? Regs - do you purge db or not, etc?
How old is your game? What is your active churn rate, how often updates are pulled in, session time, etcetc.
And then the biggest question - WHAT IS YOUR USER COST.
I could go on and on, but it all doesn't make sense, you can't compare apples to oranges, unless you are really comparing 2 equal games, e.g. both are MMORPG games with real F2P (no premium features, players could earn all money without paying) in the same region (as ARPU between Germany and China will fluctuate by tens of percents for the same game after a year of running). And then it comes to the science of game design to determine the reason of the higher/lower ARPU.
F2P game revenue evaluation is a science where you should evaluate layers of profits inside the game and really know what you are talking about.
Now, spend 5 days playing 50 different mmo games and filter out 10 money-worthy out of them ;) Write me a mail, I'm looking for Country Managers in Europe to work with the games that have a lot of money - anatoly at astrumonline dot ru
Would you mind sharing some info on marketing / distribution?
How much did you spend on marketing so far, what type of distribution deals did you do, etc?
Thanks!
Distribution (currently) is solely through domainofheroes.com since the game runs without plugins...there isn't an easy way to hand a swf off to other sites.
Advertising - I spend approx 25-50 cents to acquire each player through online banner ads. That takes into account the click-through/sign-up conversion rate. Over half of the players are not coming through ads though, so that is good (free). I purchased a magazine ad but that didn't convert well at all (tracked with a signup code/freebie). There are some little 'viral' hooks in the game...like it can Twitter major events for you, etc. There is a MySpace and Facebook group. Stuff like that. Nothing grand yet. I'd say I spend about 10% of the revenue on acquiring new players.
I am working on a virtual world (in the planning stages) and I am trying to find costs and schedules for the more popular MMOs. Is there a shared resource?
You have to keep in mind:
1. The cost of registration (wich can go up to 1$)
2. % of users that completed the tutorial and newbie phase and became active users.
3. Typical lifespan of an active player in the game before they leave it
4. The server-side player cost.
That data is valuable not only for the marketing and business owner, but for game designers. Basically, operating a live game you want to bring it's revenues up, and by looking at it, designer can decide, what is more cost-effective for the game in the current situation: improvement of a tutorial stage or creation of content for the end-game.
As for the figures, I don't have an authority to announce the ARPU and ARPPU of games I've worked on, but can only provide you with the numbers from public sources. For example, dwar.ru, the most succesful game on russian F2P market was stated to have 200$ ARPPU with 10-15% of paying userbase. Of course, unlike Puzzle Pirates, it is much more hardcore browser-based game with many gameplay elements similar to "big" client games like WoW and Lineage 2.
Any help is welcome, thanks