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NPD: Behind the Numbers, January 2011
 
 
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  NPD: Behind the Numbers, January 2011
by Matt Matthews [Business]
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February 21, 2011 Article Start Page 1 of 4 Next
 

[Gamasutra analyst Matt Matthews examines NPD results for U.S. video game retail in January, including close-up looks at rising Kinect popularity and "extended declines" in Wii and DS hardware and software sales.]

According to the latest NPD Group sales estimates, U.S. retail video game sales are still contracting. On Thursday the firm revealed a 4% decline in overall sales, with both the hardware and software segments contributing to the shortfall.


Only the accessory segment showed a year-over-year increase in revenue, with Microsoft's Kinect and Sony's Move likely contributing most of that growth.

Below these figures are some intriguing trends, including the continued rise of Microsoft's new motion control system and growth in Sony's software revenue.

We also look at Nintendo's plight as both the Wii and DS experience extended declines in hardware and software sales.

Along the way we also find the opportunity to comment on Dance Central sales as they pass a new milestone and put the launch of LittleBigPlanet 2 in historical context.

January At a Glance

With only one month in the year so far, our monthly review of the top-line figures is somewhat simpler than usual. As the chart below shows, both software and hardware revenue were down approximately $30 million each.

The accessories segment showed a $12 million, or 5.5%, gain. Along with Sony and Microsoft's new motion control systems, it is likely that points/money cards for Xbox Live and PlayStation Network continue to contribute to the growth in this segment.

According to industry analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities, overall software unit sales were down just 1%, with most of the software revenue decline coming from the 4% decline in average software prices.

For the record, the NPD Group is now clearly labeling their media releases to indicate that the figures include only retail sales. They are providing quarterly estimates of extra-retail sales, including mobile games, downloadable content, and casual games, along with other segments, but those figures are not included in the figures above nor are they considered directly in this analysis.

 
Article Start Page 1 of 4 Next
 
Comments

Allen Varney
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Why is it that (as this article asserts) Sony can reverse its PS3 decline at any time with a price cut, but this idea is never suggested as a solution for the Wii's decline?

Isaiah Taylor
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I think it's pretty clear how well the both PS3 and Wii have sold in the U.S. and there could be an argument for why the Wii could fair better in the long-term with a price cut, but I don't think the PS3 is anywhere near the market saturation point as the Wii.

Jonathan Gilmore
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Agreed, I also don't think that Nintendo has the same flexibility to lower the price that the PS3 and 360 do at this point.

Scott Mullins
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"A year ago when Microsoft's Kinect was known as Project Natal, we were dubious about the system's value to the Xbox 360 market."
Please stop referring to Kinect as a "system", it's not. It's a peripheral, accessories...add-on, but it's not a system.

"While Microsoft has been on fire for the past eight months, Sony's good fortunes appear to have run out. It is the only platform holder with three systems still actively being sold, two of which are no longer meaningfully contributing to the market. The third, the flagship PlayStation 3, is saddled with a $300 entry-level price that is killing its mass-market appeal."
So...you say the average 360 sells for more than $300, but the $300 price of the PS3 is killing its mass-market appeal?

Also, I agree with Allen Varney...no mention of a Wii price drop down to $180, or $150, or $130 increasing Wii sales...

Gaming journalism...gotta love it!

Isaiah Taylor
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The price of the Xbox in-store is much different than the price when you actually set it up in the house. Clearly the consumer care's about what they see in the story moreso than when they take something home and have to factor in added cost.

Andrew Dobbs
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Wow! They clearly missed those important points! Good thing it's just gaming journalism!

!

!!

Jay Lee
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Wii has pretty much been $179 since November and while there has not been an "official" price cut it might as well be official if everyone has them at that price anyways. Now what would $150 do, who knows.

Leon Terry
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Still ignoring that Wii software sales are down so much due to lack of support from third parties I see. Nothing Nintendo can do about that unless they want to money hat titles. I would love someone to do a study on why the hardware that was selling the most software at times is losing so much support so fast. Even the third party reports from last year and the year before showed that they were making money on the system. Those reports are ignored and instead some random employee saying the Wii does not sell software is reported instead.

Anyway, the Wii's hardware sales are not a problem. As TheWon put it the Wii went from selling great to selling good. The 360 has gone from just selling ok to selling good. The PS3 is almost back to just selling ok. In the near future the Wii will be selling at PS3 levels though. With little software support the hardware sales will only get worst.

Ryan B
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thanks for the analysis as always, matt! i'm shedding tears for the loss of NPD's individual unit sales numbers too.

Keon Jackson
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Nintendo dropping the price would lower their profits. The Wii was selling a record levels a couple years ago so there is no way they can reach those levels again. If people are buying Wii in the same range they are buying the PS3 and 360 there is no problem in Wii hardware sales. If you think there is then you must also think there is a problem in the PS3 and 360 hardware sales. Still the Wii is droping at a normal pace.

The Wii didn't have a relauch and the 360 did not outsell it by much this month. I think the Wii will conintue to drop as software support drops, but I also think Nintendo will launch new hardware soon. If the 3DS launch goes well it will show that people are ready to buy new systems and that the market can support a system launch.


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