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Shrinking release slates fuelling U.S. retail video game market decline - analysts
Shrinking release slates fuelling U.S. retail video game market decline - analysts

May 11, 2012 | By Mike Rose
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More: Console/PC, Business/Marketing



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The U.S. retail video game decline is simply down to a severe lack of game releases compared to previous years, analysts have said, as publishers continue to aggressively slash title output.

Data from the NPD Group this week showed that video game sales at U.S. retail suffered a significant drop in April, adding to the industry's continuing declines at retail over the last several months.

Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz noted that the year-over-year decline is not surprising, given that only nine new titles were released at retail during April, compared to 28 new releases in April 2011. This echoes a similar situation seen in January, when six new titles were released compared to 16 new titles year-over-year.

"The lack of depth in the release slate is significantly impacting overall sales," he added. "While smaller titles may not individually contribute significant sales, in aggregate they do have a meaningful impact. Crucially, the major publishers have geared their expense structures for more limited release slates.

"Thus, while the lower overall sales figures are a negative for game retailers and hardware manufacturers (who collect software royalties), we believe the U.S. publishers can continue to grow earnings despite declining industry sales. We believe that reduced industry competition is likely to be a positive for incumbent publishers when the next hardware cycle begins."

Michael Olson and Andrew Connor, analysts from PiperJaffray, noted that the top 10 games during April generated revenues that totaled less than half of the revenues taken from the top 10 games during April 2011. In particular, the duo said that six of the top 10 best-selling games during April 2011 outsold this April's top selling game, Prototype 2.


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Christian Keichel
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"The U.S. retail video game decline is simply down to a severe lack of game releases compared to previous years, analysts have said, as publishers continue to aggressively slash title output."

Mmmm, yes and? This sounds as if it's the publishers fault, if they only would release more games, the industry wouldn't be down.
If publishers would think more releases would result in better sales, they would simply release more games, but obviously this isn't the case. It's more that publishers cut down the number of releases, because to many of these games didn't sold in the past.

Travis Flynn
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The problem is the disconnect between market metrics and company profitability. In past years, we had more game releases in the same time period. This generally increased the total market for video games, because more releases generally means broader appeal, and larger audience captured. This paints a very rosy picture for the market.

However, not all of those games are incredibly profitable, which publishers definitely notice, and then essentially cut in years like this one, leaving only the superstar AAA titles to be released.

So while it might look that the game industry isn't doing as well this year, because there are lower game sales, the sales have been concentrated on a smaller set of titles, which means the publishers may very well end up with more profits, even if they have less revenue.

The thing is, people often attribute changes incorrectly, and in many cases people will take this as an indication that demand is shrinking, when in fact supply is shrinking, and there are just more unmet demands.

Christian Keichel
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I don't say it's simple to put out more games, but the industry HAS released more games in 2011 and 2010 then they are releasing in 2012.
This higher output was on the exact same hardware by the exact same teams with the exact same effort for every title.
"in particular when the goal is more involved than just making money off every release"
And no, the only goal of every release is making money, it's a business and nothing more.

@ Travis

"So while it might look that the game industry isn't doing as well this year, because there are lower game sales, the sales have been concentrated on a smaller set of titles, which means the publishers may very well end up with more profits, even if they have less revenue. "

We are talking about a revenue drop of more the 30% for the first 5 months of the year, this is nothing but a crash, no correction.

k s
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@Christian Keichel: "And no, the only goal of every release is making money, it's a business and nothing more. "
For publishers this is true but those of use who got into game development because we love games it's most definitely not true.

Mike Rentas
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Prototype 2 didn't outsell Portal 2 and Mortal Kombat?? Well crap, guys, I guess we had a nice run. Last one out be sure to get the lights.

Joe McGinn
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What? Closing half the console developers on the planet has resulted in a shrinking release slate? Who woulda thunk it?


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