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Analyst: DS Successor To Hit In Next 15 Months?
by Leigh Alexander [PC, Console/PC, Mobile Console]
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January 15, 2010
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The Nintendo DS had a record 2009 -- the best year for any system in console gaming history, the company says. Yet one analyst sees signs that suggest the company will unveil a new portable within the next eight months.
Look no further than the company's historical market strategy, says EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, who believes that "one of the biggest reasons for Nintendo’s success in the handheld market is their ability to remove opportunity gaps for competitors to enter."
"Nintendo’s transition from the GBA to the DS, a year earlier than anticipated, was a brilliant strategy to remove any upper hand the Sony PSP could have by being first to market," says Divnich.
In the year 2010, Nintendo's continuing face-off against the PSP seems less relevant than the overall sea change in the portable market brought about by the explosive iPhone.
Third-party publishers are providing some portents that the DS may have had its last banner year. Perhaps the biggest signal is Ubisoft's recent financial warning, shifting from a forecast of a profitable fiscal year to a loss due in large part to a major contraction in the market for casual and family-friendly software on DS.
Specifically, Ubisoft said revenue from its casual portfolio, which relies heavily on Nintendo platforms, has fallen 50 percent during 2009.
"Many publishers including Sega, Capcom, and now Ubisoft have all expressed that they may be reducing their exposure to Nintendo’s consoles, which will likely lead to heavy declines in both hardware and software sales for the Nintendo DS," said Divnich -- although it should be noted that Sega and Capcom were speaking to the potential specifically for mature-oriented core titles on Wii.
Divnich also says that pirates are quickly finding ways around the DSi's new security measures, and that the loss of software dollars to piracy is a continuing problem on portable platforms. A hardware revamp -- one that includes backwards compatibility -- should be just the thing, claims the analyst.
"We believe that due to the aging technology, the possibility of new competitors in 2011, [and] a decline in publisher support and piracy, Nintendo will launch a successor to the DS within the next 15 months, and likely announce such in the next eight months," the analyst concludes.
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DS dominates the market = suddenly DS2 is coming.
:/
As the article stated, the developers were talking about reducing support of the Wii. For the most part, the DS has been favorable for the third parties and the fact is, Nintendo has rarely EVER launched new portable hardware without direct competition or a flaw in the previous hardware that needed correcting. The iPhone while strong, hasn't really stolen any games from the DSi and most Japanese publishers probably love the DS more then they love any of the consoles this generation.
Even if the proposed DSi exclusive games that are in works for flop, I just can't see Nintendo releasing a successor for the DS until around 2012 or late 2011 in Japan. The system has no real competition.
Yeah, I thought when consoles dominate, that's when the competition needs to rethink their strategy and release new consoles. Where's PS4, XBox720, and seriously PSP2?
"The Nintendo DS had a record 2009 -- the best year for any system in console gaming history, the company says."
Surely with that kind of success Nintendo can't wait to ditch the DS and start an entirely new platform. ;)
That said, there are multiple magnitudes more games on the iPhone then there is on DSi, and even though I do have some favourites on the DSi, there's also way more good quality games on the iPhone too.
This article is pretty insightful on the whole DSiWare position:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/26739/Opinion_What_Went_Wrong_With_WiiWare_DS
iWare__PSP_Minis.php
Otherwise, I pretty much agree with you that I don't see a successor in the works. People still love that DS Lite like it's some sort of digital crack dispenser.