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Analyst: Modern Warfare 2 DLC Could See 10 Million Downloads
by Leigh Alexander [PC, Console/PC]
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April 8, 2010
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2.5 million first-week downloads of Modern Warfare 2's $15 Stimulus Package DLC are just the beginning, says Signal Hill analyst Todd Greenwald, who expects to see 10 million downloads of content packs for the game by the end of this year.
"This is an overwhelming response to an offering of 5 new multi-player map packs," says Greenwald. "By comparison, very few developers have been able to sell even 1 million downloads of DLC."
Greenwald predicts that Stimulus Package, thus far exclusive to Xbox 360, will re-launch on the PlayStation and PC in the next two to three months, and that the next installment of major multiplatform DLC will come in the fall.
As Greenwald points out, Electronic Arts has seen 1 million downloads of Battlefield 1943 on Xbox Live Arcade -- "however, this occurred over nearly a nine-month span," he notes.
By comparison, the first downloadable content pack for Infinity Ward's first Call of Duty: Modern Warfare sold 1 million units in its first nine days.
The Stimulus Package consists of five new multiplayer maps. It was released through Xbox Live on March 30, with temporary technical problems hampering a launch that nevertheless saw extreme commercial success.
"The rapid adoption of additional MW2 content speaks to the unprecedented demand for additional Call of Duty content, and expansion of multi-player action in the Modern Warfare 2 ecosystem," adds the analyst.
As for the strong launch of Stimulus Package, "We estimate that the 2.5 million units will equate to about $26 million in net revenue, and about $11 million in operating income," Greenwald says.
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I'm sure Kottick is s***ing himself with glee over the fact that now most of our peers in the industry who have been around for a while are now going to look at this and see that gamers will pay anything as long as it's brand named because the fan boys are sheep.
This doesn't apply to everyone, but you get my picture.
How does one square this with the fact that gamers were not willing to pay for the GTAIV content? GTAIV sold like gangbusters too, but it doesn't sound like they did numbers anywhere near even the first week numbers for MW2's map pack.
Also, I guess this makes up for MS banking on the GTAIV dlc, I bet they couldn't be happier with whatever cut they get from this dlc. Plus, at least 2.5 million people have used the XBOX marketplace to download some fairly expensive content. I bet a lot of those people can be lured back for other content.
I agree with the kids statement. They really need to bring the game back to reality. Too many kids seem to think that you truly can bounce knives off concrete and kill people. Or that soldiers run around with dual-wielding shotguns :/
@Jonathan---Hmmm... I would square this to GTA in that GTA is seen as more of a single player experience, with multiplayer, though good, not as popular as MW2, which truly focused more on multiplayer than on the single player experience.
It really only sold because it's Modern Warfare 2. I know gamers that simply downloaded it without regards to the price, or said that "It's too expensive, but I'll get it anyway".
I have to agree with MS making up some dough for it though. The first DLC for GTAIV did great, but "Ballad" didn't do nearly as well as expected.
There's a great big ol' brick wall that ATVI wants to so desperately smash into. It appears that they've learned nothing from EA's implosion.
I've never liked the idea of making for-free maps. I feel I'm giving charity to the developers.
@Tim ya I like that idea as well.
You pay five dollars per map. Each map has a round time varying between 10 to 15 minutes, but I'll just round down to 10 for simplicity's sake. Now to do some math.
Let's say you expect the average game to bring you 40 hours (variable) of entertainment in its lifetime. At a 60 dollar price tag, that's $1.50 per hour of entertainment. To match that with a single map, at $5, you would need to play that map for 4.66 hours, or 260 minutes. To make 260 minutes with 10 minute rounds, you will need to play that map 26 times in its lifetime to be worth the price of purchase.
Seeing how popular the series is, and that the average COD multiplayer gamer has probably played hundreds (if thousands) of rounds, they'll easily make the price worth it.
In regards paid map downloads I'm all for that, IF the money is going to the developer. In this case the money is going to the marketer and that's just wrong.
But the point is still solid. Most people will get more entertainment time out of this than they would out of, say, God of War 3, which was full price and a number of people were finished with the next day.
Same applies with movies. Same applies with comic books. You might think it's wrong, but that's the widely implemented business model across multiple entertainment mediums. This is the trade-off all developers must face when they integrate into a larger distribution company.
@Bob, indeed my math was a bit off, I thought it was 3 maps for 15, not 5. But when I rework the math, it actually takes my original estimate and gives it a 40% off discount, lol. So you would only need to play a map (number crunching, fixing previous mathematical errors) 18 times to have an entertainment value equating to a packaged 40-hour gameplay experience at full retail price.
It's worth noting that the physics of business became a fascination of mine very recently in life. I was a C to D- student in math, and couldn't push myself beyond pre-calculus, so I apologize if my numbers are off.