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Analyst: UFC Undisputed 2010 Performance 'Below Expectations'
by Chris Remo [PC, Console/PC]
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June 3, 2010
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Despite the stellar sales of its predecessor, THQ and Yuke's' UFC Undisputed 2010 is selling "slower than anticipated," even as UFC pay-per-view television events are performing well, according to Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian.
In a research note released today, Sebastian said the game is "tracking below our expectations at retail," and pointed out that online retailer Amazon discounted the game $20 to $39 after only a week on sale.
As a result, the analyst expects decreased reorders from retailers, and Lazard Capital Markets is decreasing its first fiscal quarter revenue estimates for THQ by $4 million, down to $193 million -- considerably below market expectations of $203 million.
Sebastian noted that factors directly related to Undisputed don't explain the game's poor showing: it has a strong reputation based on the reception of UFC Undisputed 2009, which exceeded 3.5 million units; it has extremely positive reviews, with an average Metacritic score of 85; and UFC itself is doing well. Thus, he postulates that other recent releases like Rockstar San Diego's Red Dead Redemption could be "adding some competitive pressure."
Nonetheless, Sebastian expects THQ to grow in the coming years, thanks to franchises like Volition's Saints Row, Vigil's Darksiders, Relic's Space Marine, and the Dreamworks movie game license.
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This is why publisher's attempts to wipe out the used game market will come back to bite them. A lot of gamers trade in their old games, to buy new games. Gamers don't have infinite sized pockets.
Still, it seems to me that games like this don't really need a yearly update. In baseball, football, hockey you have a lot of roster turn around, so you get sales even if that's all that is updated (like usually in Madden). But this presumably is the same bunch of guys as before.
I say give more time to smaller, more talent-focused teams. You'll reduce cost, increase quality, avoid franchise fatigue and thus increase your profit while keeping your IPs viable in the long term. But hey what do I know, right?
Oh and Mathieu on last point, amen and know how you feel.
Ron
Plus, the UFC doesn't have major changes every year if you think about it. It's like boxing in some respect. UFC fighters fight more than boxers, but they still only fight a maximum of three or four fights a year. I personally don't think that any game needs a yearly releases. I mean, look a Madden. That game is a joke, no offense. You don't need to put one out each year if all you are going to do is take some features out that were in the game last year and add back in some that were there two years ago. How many times have they switched in and out the interviews and drills in Superstar Mode or the condensed info hub in Franchise mode. Announcers have been in and out in varying levels as well. It's really just throwing darts at a bunch of already proven features and shoving those in the game this time around.
Now, all that being said. They picked an AWFUL time to release that game. Wait until, like the middle of June or July, or even a few weeks before Madden when people are jonesing for something new, then throw that out there. That's what they should have done, because there isn't going to be much else popping up over the summer. A lot of announcements with E3, but not much big name material. But they put it out with Alan Wake AND Red Dead Redemption. Those are two games that people are already having trouble choosing between. Who in their right mind that doesn't just play sports games is going to forgo both those games in favor of a yearly release fighting game?
Plus... competing with a Rockstar game is really taking your studio's life into your own hands.