| Martin Crownover |
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5.51 billion dollars, just for a company that sells virtual goods? Sounds pretty unsustainable to me.
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| Samuel Batista |
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I hope for the sake of mankind that it is...
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| Jason Manley |
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Smoke and mirrors. Their games mostly rip offs of other companies titles. The viral days are over. The easy street is at an end.
If they turn those huge ip's into other non facebook properties..ala the transmedia conversation they might do alright but they do not have the experience to do that. Good luck with sustaining that valuation with ripped ip's, a market that no longer has constant profile spam, and a company culture that disdains creativity. |
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| Christer Kaitila |
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It seems that the entire games industry hates Zynga. Everyone wants them to fail. Keep dreaming folks: imho virtual goods will blow retail away whether we like it or not.
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| Mathieu MarquisBolduc |
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Zynga seems to have build their business off facebook's negligence. Will they be able to continue to grow now that they are tightening the spamming rules? The report doesnt mention that.
The report is heavily based on the size of Zynga's user base. What is their retention rate? The report doesnt mention. Sometimes I think analyst reports should be peer-reviewed... |
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| Tont Voles |
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Oh Mr Lovell! You are a card.
This valuation is based on little more than estimates. To my knowledge, not a single shred of solid financial data has ever been released by Zynga, so quite how this evaluation has any weight whatsoever is beyond me. I think the only solid financial fact Zynga's ever released is how much it donated to the Haiti fund. Please note: "So where does the $5 billion valuation come from? The valuation is based on a 15.3X multiple on our projection of Zynga’s 2015 EBITDA of $659 million. I’m the first to admit valuation is part art and part science." So it's wild speculation about what Zynga *might* be worth in 2015. This is all about that rumoured angling for IPO. No surprises, mind. If Zynga's managed to pull the wool over the eyes of its MAU base, it's only fitting it should do the same for its potential investors. |
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| Nicolas Godement-Berline |
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This analyst is comparing apples with oranges : a public company vs a non public one.
There is a dozen ways to evaluate Zynga's value. It's notorious that when only a few shares of a non public, hyped up company are traded, their value will spike up dramatically. |
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| Tom Baird |
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Now I'm not very knowledgable in economics, but if it's a private, close market what prevents Zynga from inflating it's own worth to whatever it desires. Giving 1% of the company to a group of employees and stating it's instead of $50 million worth of bonuses. Or higher up employees buying their own stock for higher than normal prices to increase their stock should they go public.
The smaller the group of people trading something the more individuals get to dictate what it's worth. And if there are payoffs to increasing that worth, then why not? Someone please correct me on why they can't just choose their value if it's privately set. |
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| Carlo Delallana |
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My family still has old trophies and golf clubs my grandfather used to own. I believe we still have my father's suitcase full of casette tapes he used to listen to. What kind of stuff will I pass on to my grandchildren if everything I own is virtual?
Food for thought. |
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| Patrick Coan |
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An existentialist would argue that it's all virtual, regardless of the medium: RL or SL. Given humanity's currently shifting paradigm, digital goods are becoming more relevant- thus Zynga's numbers. You can scrutinize the legitimacy of the numbers all day, the fact is that Zynga is successfully utilizing a newer formula.
The responsibility of a game designer has always been placing logical value on virtualized entities: God says Earth is home, Man turned checker board into a battle-field, and companies like Zynga and other Digital Content Creators tell consumers that their RGB pixels are relevant. As a game designer, isn't our job about crafting the consumer's experience of logical relationships between virtual entities? Apparently, the masses are defined by casual gamers, and apparently casual gamers like to purchase things like "Cute Brown Sheep". I know I didn't begin my journey as a game designer to create games with this model, frankly, social gaming isn't what I had in mind at all. I guess if you're in it for the cash, the social gaming way seems good. State Farm Insurance thinks it's a good way to go, they offered to keep my crops safe until the 27th. At the same time, the social gaming framework may be the start of some really cool means of gaming that have yet to be considered. |
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| Ken Kinnison |
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I just have a hard time buying the numbers, even once I factor in any bias. As someone said, its kinda apples to oranges considering its a closed market.
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| John Gordon |
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That is impressive. I didn't know that Zygna was even in the ballpark of EA even if the figures are inflated. Still I have to wonder why they would consider IPO. Normally you do that to raise capital, so that you can grow quickly. Zygna has already grown quickly. If they really do go for an IPO I would suspect the owners are just trying to sell off the business to stockholders and then get out as quickly as possible. I.e. IPO is just an indication that they think their days are numbered.
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| Shaun Greene |
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I don't understand how if the virtual goods market is PROJECTED to reach $3.6B Zynga, which operates entirely within that market, is valued at $5.51B...
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| Javier San Juan |
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My advice: SELL NOW!!! That valuation is clearly unsustainable.
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| Tomiko Gun |
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HAHA! Social games are the new web bubble. I can't wait for it to burst. If Zynga were smart, they would sell the damn company tomorrow.
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| A W |
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Doesn't Sony do the very same thing with Home? They require you to purchase a PS3 and they give you Home for free, and when you get into Home, you find out that you have to pay real dollars for much of everything you aquire in the VR world. If Home was a facebook social interaction that didn't require a PS3 to work but still had the same "virtual market" solutions of Zynga to stimulate Sony bottom line, it would be guaranteed the hardcore crowds would be talking about how Sony is a pioneer in creating a virtual space for gamers to enjoy.
I don't play Zynga social games, but I don't hate them either. Last time I heard, gaming companies selling physical software are now saying that the best solution to making a profit is to sell games that are half done are have less content at 60.00 usd and then later charge that consumer upwards of 14.99 usd to purchase add-ons. Where is the call for that being a silly idea? Activision, EA, and others do it all the time on the consoles and computers gaming front, but its OK because they make games we like to play... |
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