| Mark Harris |
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Solid month for everybody, sounds like, which is always a good thing. Very interesting to hear the NPD projections that 2010 is flat vs. 2009 when taking into account total consumer spend (which includes digial content purchases).
Slow but sure progress toward digital purchases, hopefully as this scales vs. physical retail we'll see prices come down and models shift toward volume vs. pure margin. |
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| Joe McGinn |
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How do you figure that Mark? Aside from Kinect, everything is down from last year. For boxed product I see more of the same, and worse in the future. The retail game business will be as extinct as record stores and video stores in five years.
Fortunately these to not represent loss of gaming revenue overall, just less use of reatail channels, more than mde up for by digital sales. |
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| John Gordon |
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Seems like the NPD keeps changing the format of these reports. A few months ago they stopped reporting numbers and combined the multiplatform titles together in the top ten. Now they are including PC games, while the report was console only before. Who knows what the NPD report will look like next month?
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| Tim Tavernier |
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"This industry has a problem, which nobody seems to see."
Owh, there are people who have seen it for years (me included), it's just, they get ignored all the time because of that same fact. Even when faced with cold-hard evidence and numbers, the gaming analysts and journalists ignore it. It's my fault they're all incredible unprofessional. |
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| Peter Warman |
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For a more complete picture of the software sides of things including console, PC/Mac, social, casual, mobile, MMO gaming check out Newzoo's free Total Consumer Spend 2010 Report. It shows growth/decline per segment. www.newzoo.com/totalconsumerspend2010. If the NPD estimates 10.5bn on new retail sales and only 5bn for rental, pre-woned as well as all online gaming revenue streams I think somebody is underestimating the (speed of) growth in casual, social, MMO, digital distribution. Newzoo states $12.7bn spent on consoles (total) and PC/Mac (boxed) being 52% of total consumer spend on games. How does NPD divide the $5bn amongst second-hand trade, rental market, DLC (consoles), digiatl downloads (PC/Mac), social games, mobile games, casual websites and MMOs?
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| Russell Carroll |
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Certainly consoles are in transition...
...but I don't see as much doom and gloom as some. It was a great year, with great games and some great sales numbers. Notably: - X360 had its best year ever...in it's 5th year on the market! (unprecedented!) - Wii had its 2nd best hardware month EVER in December 2010, and it's 4th month of 2million+ consoles sold (the PS2 had just one month selling 2million+ for comparision) - The PS3 US numbers eclipsed the lifetime sales numbers of the original Xbox in December. (which means all 3 systems are successful!) - A 3rd party Wii game was the best selling Wii game of Christmas (dogs & cats living together...mass hysteria!) - More consoles have sold THIS generation than any other generation EVER (74 million and counting vs. 72 million for last generation). ...and sales are still going up! The numbers for December 2010 are down versus last year, but last year December was the best month in industry history, it's a pretty impossible comparison. However, there is also a lot of good facts that you can pull out of this that shows this is a golden era of console gaming that we're likely to remember fondly in years to come. I doubt we'll ever see another generation of hardware sell anywhere close to the units this generation has sold (and will still sell!). |
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| Christopher McClatchey |
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Two things:
First, I have to suspect the NPD's numbers, as WoW:Cataclysm reportedly sold 4.7 million copies in December, far more than CoD:BLOPS' 3.6 million on all platforms. Heck, both Cataclysm and Starcraft 2 should show up in the overall sales top ten, yet they are nowhere to be seen. (For reference, NSMB Wii, #4 on the chart, has sold more than 4 million copies in the US - in both 2009 and 2010.) Second, the Playstation 2 was a phenomenon. It sold ~150 million copies. But the Xbox and Gamecube both sold only ~20 million copies apiece. In contrast, the current generation consoles are all sitting on at least 40 million copies sold - 360 has 50 million, PS3 41.6 million, and the Wii has 76 million. While the combined total of these sales does not approach the 200 million sales of the last generation, it doesn't really have to. The PS2 was an aberration, not an industry trend, and the lack of such a mega-seller this time around does not point to a broken trend, but a return to normalcy - a normalcy where the weakest-selling current-generation platform has still sold twice as much as it had a chance to last generation. As an interesting fact, the PS2 hit 100 million sales in 2005. This is comparable to the time that has elapsed in the current hardware generation, bringing the five-year generation sales to approximately 140 million. The five-year generation sales this time around? 166 million. Weaker? I think not. There's simply no perfect-storm console this time around, and the companies get to SHARE the rewards, rather than Sony taking home the whole pie. |
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| Tim Tavernier |
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"As an interesting fact, the PS2 hit 100 million sales in 2005. This is comparable to the time that has elapsed in the current hardware generation, bringing the five-year generation sales to approximately 140 million. The five-year generation sales this time around? 166 million. Weaker? I think not. There's simply no perfect-storm console this time around, and the companies get to SHARE the rewards, rather than Sony taking home the whole pie."
This would be true if not for the fact that the buying audience is radically different then last gen. The Wii does not share the same audience as last gen, it has attracted a radical different audience (the "everyone else" crowd compared to 13-25 year-olds males of last gen). This means that the Xbox360 and PS3 are the "succesors" of last-gen, the Wii has nothing to do with that. Not that analysts or journalists will admit this. NPD has admitted a couple of times that during 2007-2008, the Wii was responsible of 99% of growth in the console market... 99%! This of course was completely ignored. Growth within the industry was always contributed to the Xbox360 and PS3, all signs of decline were always put on the shoulders of the Wii. The truth is, long term number analysis says it's the other way around, big time. |
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