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Analysis: Should Nintendo Launch The Next Generation Now?
by Chris Morris [Console/PC, Business]
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April 15, 2011
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The rumors have been gaining steam for a couple of weeks now. Nintendo, they say, is planning to announce its next generation console at E3 this year.
While the company, not surprisingly, isn't commenting on the chatter, it's hardly going out of its way to downplay it either. And the second quarter lineup for the system (along with growing whispers about a looming $50 price cut in May) didn't do anything to quiet speculation.
So, for argument's sake, let's assume it's true. Has the time come to start bracing ourselves for the next generation of console systems? Is this simply an effort by the company to update the Wii just enough to keep it competitive for a few more years? Or is it something else entirely?
If it's just an effort to patch the Wii, it will be a surprising and disappointing move by Nintendo. For the past seven years, the company has had a pretty clear "go big or go home" philosophy when it came to new products – taking risks and putting its weight behind those. While the DS line has had iterative design changes, too much time has elapsed since the Wii hit shelves for that to be a viable option.
To simply tack a high-definition component onto the system would reek of desperation and put Nintendo into a role it has desperately tried to avoid for years: That of a follower. More importantly, it probably wouldn't be enough to convince the millions of people who own a Wii to buy the new system.
Now, certainly the next system will support HD. The time has come – and even Nintendo will begrudgingly accept that (though not, of course, on the record). And while it's easy to point fingers at the Wii's SD standard, keep in mind that when this generation first hit shelves, HD sets were nowhere near as prevalent (or cheap) as they are today. By jettisoning the costs associated with having a high def output, Nintendo was able to keep costs down and offer a system with immediate mass market pricing appeal.
The bigger questions are: Will this new system, whatever it is, have a new control scheme? Will the graphics be on par with the Xbox 360 and PS3 (or even greater, as Kotaku claims)? And will the company, finally, get multiplayer right?
There are no answers at present, of course. Even Game Informer, which says it has verified the whispers with several of its sources, is light on details. But the magazine reports that whatever this new system may be, "Nintendo is trying to embrace the western gamer and will likely launch a new brand with this console."
That reeks of a big move. And if, in fact, Nintendo actually is introducing a fully-fledged next generation device at this point in time, it could be one of the savviest – and boldest - moves the company has made to date.
The gaming world has gotten used to new systems from all three of the major players within a year or so of each other. But Microsoft and Sony are in no hurry to jump into the next generation. (Just check their retail prices for proof.) So, to put it plainly: No, we're not about to launch the next round of the console wars – at least not in the traditional sense.
Instead, by launching a new system/brand at this point in the current cycle, Nintendo would once again be creating its own space – and would, in some ways, further remove itself from the so-called "console wars".
In TV terms, it would be akin to Fox's decision all those many years ago to begin aggressively programming during the summer months – building an audience when other networks were looking in the other direction.
From an investor standpoint, it would boost excitement in the industry – as always happens when a new generation starts. And that's something third-party publishers are eager to see happen.
Similarly, it's entirely possible the company could plan to keep the Wii on shelves, as a sales alternative alongside this new system. It's employing a comparable strategy with the DSi and 3DS. And Reggie Fils-Aime certainly implied the company has no plans to do away with it during a recent conversation.
"The Wii has a long life in front of it," he says. "We're still sitting at $199. There are a variety of marketing tools at our disposal."
Hyperbole and rumors about whatever Nintendo has planned are going to run rampant until the company makes an announcement – or issues a firm denial. That's normal as new systems draw near. But what a lot of people might overlook is that in this case, the timing could be just as interesting to watch as the system itself.
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The 360 had a pretty good video card when it came out. (So bad it caused a lot of heating problems). But that was 6 years ago. Heck, were it a PC, Windows 7 wouldn't even support it (it's like an ATI x1000). ATI is like 6 different generations beyond.
And the PS3 had a bad video card when it came out. Sure, having 8 CPUs helped, but it's still weak.
Sure, they don't have to deal with Windows and can write to the hardware, so you get a bigger bang for your buck. But they are just really dated.
The catch though is that Nintendo launchs now with something a lot more powerful, but still behind what Sony/MS launch. That could cause multi-platform games to suffer (like PS2 games hurt Xbox/GC ones), or it could be a case of DC, not succeeding at all. The PS2 case is more likely, though.
I think it's very unlikely Nintendo will attempt to compete head to head with Sony and Microsoft with a new high end, high priced console. It's just not the way they think or operate. My guess is they'll announce a new console with much more power and speed than the Wii, but not as much as the 360 or PS 3. Basically, a next generation N64 targeted, at core players who are not "hardcore" players (a majority of the audience) and advanced casual players.
I for one doubt they could even find the hardware to make a weaker console then the 360/PS3 nowadays without major efforts. Even at 300$ (Tom's Hardware had a nice system for 400-450$ a few months back, and that was retail price).
EDIT: come on... "Nintendo actually is introducing a fully-fledged next generation device at this point in time, it could be one of the savviest – and boldest - moves the company has made to date." the DS announcement wasn't he savviest and boldest move?
"In TV terms, it would be akin to Fox's decision all those many years ago to begin aggressively programming during the summer months – building an audience when other networks were looking in the other direction." Seriously?
I think this kind of hype is why so many people are let down when hardware finally is announced and becomes real.
Indeed.
HD is standard now, it would be bizarre if the next system, whatever it is, doesn't have HD. It would also be pretty bizarre if that was the point of it.
As for boldness, when does Nintendo release systems?
1985, '91, '96, '01, '06... '12?
I'm sensing a pattern here.
I'm sensing a pattern here. "
Let's see 6 years, 5 years, 5 years, 5 years, 6 years. Is the pattern, that every fifth generation is launched after six years and all other generations in between are launched every 5 years? Complicatwed pattern ;)
We'll see what Nintendo has in play when E3 arrives. It's obvious that a new console is in the works, since they're obviously not making any games for anything else. They're definitely working on something.
If they just update to 360/PS3 level (or slightly above) graphics, improve the online, and update the Wiimote then they could keep costs down... but there is little incentive to buy such a machine. If you already have a 360/PS3 there's little reason to shell out the money for a comparable N system, and if you have a Wii then you probably don't care to run out and buy a slightly updated console that does what your Wii does.
If they release a new mega console they abandon the mass market price point (unless you take a huge loss) that helped the Wii (along with their new control scheme) to penetrate an expanded market. You also probably won't take a huge portion of the 360/PS3 base since those guys are looking for specific software franchises and most likely will wait to see what the next gen of MS/Sony mega consoles look like compare to this updated Wii.
However, Nintendo is always full of surprises. Hopefully they have something interesting enough for Wii owners to upgrade and powerful enough for the HD fans to covet.
Here is what I was looking for:
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/231759/news/wii-2-not-just-a-hd-upgrade-say
s-reggie/
Reggie says and I quote, "In terms of what the future holds, we've gone on record to say that the next step for Nintendo in home console will not be to simply make it HD, but to add more and more capability"
So a new console will not be a simple HD upgrade. It will obviously be part of it, but not the defining feature.
Things I expect:
1. A Controller redesign. They will keep motion capability but may change the ergonomics.
2. A New input method. Whether this is built into the standard controller or a second accessory, I am not sure.
3. Improved online. I doubt they will go completely XBox Live, but it will be a vast improvement over what they have now.
Those are the big things. I hope for more and look forward to being surprised.
Of changing their game design concept to be more about detecting how the user is feeling, and using this feedback to adjust the game? (tying into their experiments with in-game tutorial figure. adjusting intensity ala Left4Dead's director. using rumored front-facing camera's to gauge the player's facial response)
... I'm still clinging to the thought that vitality sensor will end up released as simple stylish metal plates - in the controller. quietly detecting your pulse and sweat PH changes.
(to be clear- I see "biometrics" as a scary sounding word that really means : quietly taking advantage of everything we learned from lie detector technology over the years. the ultimate goal being : to determine the player's true intent. something games aren't very good at, so far.).
... since no one else is talking about this, I'm very curious if I'm just crazy.
Besides, Nintendo's biggest problem with the Wii was their inability to provide good first party titles aimed at the core to help offset the lackluster third party support, and help pick up the slack of people who bought the Wii for whom the packed in games, and the occasional casual breakout hit was enough.
Upgrading the hardware is not going to help with Nintendo's lacking internal capacity for developing AAA content at a steady pace. Even on the Wii a lot of third party or outside studios picked up Nintendo's slack.
Donkey Kong Country Returns was Retro Studios and Metroid: Other M was Team Ninja, and even the Ocarina of time remake is handled by an outside studio.
Right now the known big projects being handled by Nintendo internally are the next home console Zelda, and the 3DS Mario. I have a feeling 2 big titles is the limit of their capacity, and any requisite increase in fidelity will only worsen that fact.
Honestly I think this is a good move for Nintendo, if not the only one. Sony, Microsoft and Valve (really, Steam might as well be considered a console at this point) have firmly entrenched themselves as the go to players in this industry. If Nintendo wants a piece of that, it needs to get in to the next gen early. It'd be nigh impossible for the company to gather third party support after the PS4 and 720 drop. Offense is the best defense after all.
For a while there, the big question seemed to be whether or not Nintendo was interested in the core gaming base. Comments referencing Apple seemed to indicate that that was where they were going. But I think Apple's too big a fish to fry for Reggie and Co. and their only real hope going forward is to re-establish themselves as a contender in the games industry. If not, markets like Facebook and products like the iPhone and iPad are going to eat away at Nintendo's casual market share.
I'm excited. I want to see what an aggressive, core game focused Nintendo looks like.
redo the online multiplayer, at least as powerful as ps3, stronger more accurate and faster responding motion control
I'll be in the midnight line for that.
I think that statement needs to be qualified. No machine has ever had more multiplayer focus than the Wii. From the launch title Wii Sports to NSMB and then putting co-op in EVERYthing (Sin & Punishment even!?), the Wii IS multiplayer to the extreme.
The point I think you're trying to make is that you don't like how they've done online multiplayer.
I won't argue with that, but I'd also note that I personally don't care.
If I wanted online multiplayer I'd play on a PC or another system.
However, I really like the social aspect of same-room multiplayer and that rarely carries over into online. I prefer offline, and that is what has made the Wii so cherished at our house. I have kids, so I never game alone. Mostly we play together, playing lots of co-op and party games like Kirby, NBA Jam, Mario Kart, Wii Party, Tiger Woods, or the LEGO games, but when I am playing 'alone' I appreciate that so many of the games, like SM Galaxy, The Crystal Bearers or Sky Crawlers, have made it easy for another player to be involved. I wouldn't play nearly as much otherwise.
The Wii has been the perfect gaming system for my situation.
That said, I'm looking forward to whatever Nintendo does next as I expect they will continue to lead the gaming industry into new directions. (I'm just hoping with all this Wii 2 talk that they don't cancel the Rhythm Heaven sequel on the Wii!)
Me too. All my fondest memories of enjoying games with other people involved home consoles, with people in the same room, sometimes even with single player games, watching the story unfold, taking turns, showing off, figuring things out, etc. Resident Evil 4, Myst, Civilization, Zelda Zelda Zelda.
Online is playing with obnoxious teenagers, Facebook spam... etc.
But as a counterpoint, online is playing with my brother in Iowa, my cousin in Germany, my family and friends all over the world.
While I enjoy a nice co-op session myself, a robust online multiplayer experience has been essential to my enjoyment of gaming over the last decade.
I'm hoping N gives it some more attention while maintaining your ability to play together locally.
I think the new Nintendo console should be based on online play.
Local multiplayer games don't have to worry about this problem.
(and I don't see how Nintendo could possibly keep up with the server farms Microsoft has/is setting up to help their network's performance - so online doesn't seem like a smart arena to compete in)
It turns out many people dislike or can't see the 3D effect,
so games will have to be playable with the 3D turned off..
meaning it won't bring any gameplay improvements, only an optional graphics improvement.
So I agree that they should have waited longer and come up with something more innovative (and maybe more powerful)
Well they've always done that. I bought my Gamecube in 2008.
The main feature probably will be something new and unique, but we don't even know what it is yet..
So I would just wait until they announce it.
However, Nintendo usually doesn't go for cutting edge risk. they usually repurpose existing tech into something solid that people hadn't thought of. (optical tracking and accelerometer tracking had been around for at least ten years, but it took Nintendo to smartly put them together in a controller. and i'd bet they waiting until the component prices had dropped to a certain point).
(didn't they famously see that calculator screens had dropped in price, then figured out how to make the gameboy around the cheap screens they could get?)
this strategy keeps their costs low, and avoids embarrassing hardware failures (like red ring of death, or the difficulties many devs had unlocking the PS3's "innovative" processor).
so it's unlikely they'll have some cutting edge tech no one could have predicted. more likely they'll have found a new use for existing tech - that changes how we think about games.
(and maybe it's useful to brainstorm, because we might end up uncovering what's missing from the modern gaming experience?)
For Nintendo's finances, and for all those who got introduced to gaming by the Wii,
the Wii was clearly a step forward.
They can't please everybody all the time.
Also just because MSFT and Sony wants to keep this generation going so they can catch up to NoA doesn't mean NoA has to play ball. In fact they'd be kinda silly to do so. Also, while games will be HD, I'd be shocked if NoA abandons what made the Wii so powerful with casuals. As for network, I don't think they care much in terms of multi-player games, but I do think they'll make deals with non game content providers for their device.
The real question would be price. HD quality touch screen controllers aren't going to be cheap. I hope that NoA learned from Sony's mistakes in pricing the PS3.
First, it'd need to have online play capabilities, so people can play their casual games both at home with friends and with other people across the globe.
Second, a new controller, maybe something akin to Kinect, maybe just an improved Wiimote with rechargeable batteries, anything as long as it doesn't involve feeding batteries into it.
Third, it would need some degree of backwards compatibility (helps encourage people to upgrade since they don't lose the ability to play their other games)
Despite my pessimism on this though, I look forward to seeing what Nintendo churns out this time around.